The environment minister, Marina Silva, has urged every country to demonstrate the courage needed to confront the necessity of a worldwide transition away from fossil fuels, describing the creation of a roadmap as an “moral” response to the global warming emergency.
She emphasized, though, that participation in this endeavor would be optional and “independently decided” for willing governments.
This issue remains one of the most debated matters at the UN climate summit in the host country, with countries divided over whether and in what way such a roadmap can be addressed. As the host, Brazil has maintained a balanced position on what can be included on the official agenda.
The official expressed approval for the possibility of a roadmap, though not explicitly pledging Brazil to it. She stated: “In times we have a situation that is quite grim, it is good that we have a guide. But the map does not force us to travel, or to climb.”
In an interview, the minister added: “The roadmap is an answer to our scientific knowledge [of the climate emergency]. It is an moral answer.”
Scores of nations gathered in the host city for the UN climate summit, which is starting its next phase, are seeking to establish how a global transition of oil, gas, and coal could work. These nations aim to build on a historic agreement made two years ago at COP28 to “transition away from fossil fuels.”
That pledge had no a timetable or specifics on the way it could be achieved, and even though it was adopted unanimously, several nations have later tried to back away from the pledge. Efforts last year to expand on its real-world meaning were stymied by resistance from oil-dependent nations at another UN summit.
Consequently, there was no mention of the transition away from fossil fuels in the final agreement of COP29.
For these reasons, Brazil has been wary of calls by certain nations to place the transition on the schedule for COP30. But the minister has strived behind the scenes to ensure the pledge could be discussed at the summit apart from the formal agenda.
The minister won over the nation's president, and he gave public reference three times to the need to “move away from dependence on traditional energy” at the summit of world leaders that preceded COP30, and at the start of the event.
“This is something that we understand at some point had to be put forward, because it is the sole way to address the problem from the source,” Marina Silva said. “We acknowledge that it is not easy, and we must not sell unrealistic expectations. Bringing up the topic is brave, and I wish [to see] this courage from everyone, from producing nations and using countries.”
Brazil had not started the call for a transition, she clarified, because that had been initiated at the earlier summit. Rather, it was allowing the talks to take place in accordance with what some nations desired. “We understand these topics are delicate. We will give the chance to talk about it,” she added.
Time is insufficient at COP30 to create a roadmap, a process the minister called could take a number of years because many countries confronted complex challenges around reliance on carbon-based energy, or wanted to use the proceeds from selling oil and gas to fund their development.
“The country brings up the topic, because Brazil is both a producer and user,” the minister noted. “But the nation is unique, because Brazil, if it chooses to, does not have to depend on non-renewables. We have to recognise that there are some that depend on fossil fuels in their economies and lack easy solutions, and others where fossil fuels are the foundation of their economic structure.
“To be just is to be fair to everyone, but the fundamental, primordial justice is to avoid being unjust to the planet, because it is our home.”
Should the proposal gains sufficient support, the summit could set up a platform in which the process of drawing up a strategy to the phaseout could start.
This process would involve discussions with every participating countries to the UN framework convention on climate change and criteria for how the initiative would unfold, the minister said. “Once we have standards, a governance structure can be developed; after we have a plan, and establish safeguards to be able to establish confidence in the system, I believe that with these components we can turn positive concepts into steps that are more defined, and more concrete.”
There is no guarantee that a proposal to begin developing a roadmap would win approval at the conference, although it does not require the formal approval of the summit, which proceeds by consensus and can be disrupted by special interests. Climate analysts have indicated they believe there could be backing for such a proposal from about 60 nations, but there are thought to be at least 40 opposed. A total of one hundred ninety-five countries participating at the negotiations.
“In spite of being the root cause of global warming, carbon-based energy are about the most divisive subject there is within the international climate talks, so to see a chunky group of countries publicly backing a route to achieving worldwide phaseout is in itself pretty groundbreaking.”
“In simple terms, there’s no path to a planet where warming stays below 1.5C in which nations aren’t able to talk about fossil fuel phaseout.”
“We require this language for real in this conversation. It’s highly illogical that we talk about everything but that when fossil fuels are the real problem.”
Discussions continued on the weekend on several unresolved issues that have not yet been included into the formal schedule: commerce, openness, finance and how to address the shortfall between the carbon reduction nations have planned and those required to keep to the 1.5-degree warming limit.
A summit chair pledged a “note” that would address these issues, after discussions – which have been going on since the start of the week – were unresolved. The official called on countries to embrace the “mutirão” spirit, referring to one of cooperation and positive dialogue.
Work on other substantive issues – such as adaptation to the effects of the climate emergency, the just transition for those affected by the move to a low-carbon economy and how to build institutional capacity in less developed nations – carried on productively, the presidency reported.
Brazil’s chief negotiator stated the detailed part of the summit proceedings was nearing the end, and the high-level phase – when ministers who have the authority to change their nations' positions arrive – was starting.
