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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.